The decade of the Thai property market splits in two: years of fast growth driven by urban development and state support, followed by a prolonged slowdown. It is easier to make sense of it in that order — first how the market accelerated, then why it stalled.
What problems did the market face and what happened thereafter? This article will discuss how the situation has changed and what to expect in the next decade.
Content:
- A retrospective of the last 10 years
- 5 factors contributing to Thai real estate growth
- Real estate prices are higher than economic growth and salaries in the country
- Limiting the introduction of new projects by developers
- Features of the housing sector
- What has changed since 2022
- What is the future of Thai real estate?
- What the decade teaches a buyer: three conclusions
- Frequently asked questions
A retrospective of the last 10 years
The active development of the real estate market and construction of condominiums began with the introduction of high-speed transport, in particular, electric trains.
There was a growing demand for housing and investment. What happened following this?
Lifestyle changes
In the last 10 years, the central part of Thailand’s capital and its largest city, Bangkok, has had condominiums and townhouses built along the subway that house the city’s working population. The expansion of the electric train network has made land and housing more expensive, forcing low-income people to move to suburbs that are less densely built-up than cities but have more affordable housing.
Over the past 10 years, land prices have grown by an average of 8% per year while consumer incomes have increased by only 3%. This means that incomes are not keeping up with land and housing prices. Many people cannot afford spacious housing and live in condominiums with small apartments of at least 21 sq. m.
Government measures to stimulate the real estate market
The development of the real estate sector in Thailand was based on measures taken by the state in partnership with the Central Bank of Thailand. However, the effect was contradictory. Long-term housing support measures were beneficial but the market adapted too slowly, gradually increasing household debt.
According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), average mortgage debt accounts for about 33% of total household debt.
Here are some market features and financial strategies by year.
2011-2012:
- The Ministry of Finance proposed tax cuts for first-time buyers. Property values did not exceed ฿5,000,000 ($151,000). The buyer could deduct up to a maximum of 10% of the value of the house;
- For the first house project, the price was no more than ฿1,000,000 ($30,200) and the interest rate was 0% for 3 years;
- A soft loan of up to ฿300,000 ($9,060) from the Bank of Thailand to help people repair old homes or buy a new one, at an interest rate of 3% for 5 years;
- Major developers started to build new housing in the provincial districts of Chonburi, Khon Kaen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Hat Yai, Udon Thani, Ubon Ratchathani, etc.
In 2015-2016, the Government of the National Council of Peace and Order (NCPO) took the following measures:
- Financial measures. The State Housing Bank (GHB) took measures to promote housing loans for low- and middle-income people. The loan term did not exceed 30 years and was calculated for people with an income of ฿30,000 ($906) or less.
- Fiscal measures. Reduction of the transfer registration fee and real estate mortgage registration fee from 2% of the estimated value in transfer and 1% of the collateral value to 0.01%.
- Exemption from income tax when buying a property worth up to ฿3,000,000 ($90,600) for use as a home. It had to be the first purchase and used for residence. The buyer was entitled to an income tax exemption for 5 consecutive years.
In 2018-2019, the Government strengthened credit controls:
- In 2018, tax measures were introduced for the purchase of a first property. Housing worth up to ฿5,000,000 ($151,000) could be used as an income tax deduction from individuals.
- From April 2019 the Bank of Thailand tightened mortgage rules and introduced loan-to-value (LTV) limits. For a first property below ฿10 million the ceiling stayed high, at up to 95% of the value, but the second loan was capped at 80–90% and the third at 70%. The measure targeted speculative purchases of several units on credit.
Over the past 10 years, Thais have been buying more houses. The proportion of people with housing debt is increasing across all age groups. According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), most Thais buy their first home between 31 and 40 years old.
5 factors contributing to Thai real estate growth
According to data provided by the Non-profit Analytical Center for Thailand's Socio-Economic Development Policy, the "S-shaped curve" has become an important factor in increasing demand for real estate.
Between 2007 and 2017, 5 S-shaped curves contributed to real estate growth in Thailand:
S-curve 1: Urbanization growth
2007 - rental housing in the country amounted to 18.08 million households divided into 5.76 million in urban areas and 12.31 million in rural areas.
In 2017, rental housing in cities increased to 9.99 million households while rural households decreased to 11.39 million.
Thailand’s population is aging and the situation is predicted to worsen in the next 10 years. The aging population has led to a decline in demand for housing and is one of the risk factors for Thai real estate.
S-curve 2: Real estate growth along the railway
The introduction of electric trains created a high S-shaped curve for the real estate business. As a result, the cost of condominiums on public transport lines increased significantly.
S-curve 3: The tourism sector
Arrivals grew almost without a pause and peaked in 2019 at 39.9 million foreign visitors. The pandemic wiped that momentum out, and property markets in the resort provinces felt it first.
However, will Thailand’s tourism sector be able to sustain this growth in the future? Various tourism sectors are now reaching their limits in resources and the complex environmental situation caused by pollution.
S-curve 4: Trading
The volume of trade increased significantly 20 years ago (1999-2008), averaging 15.8% per year. However, over the past 10 years, the growth rate has decreased to 6.4% per year.
S-curve 5: Real estate sales abroad
The sale of real estate to foreign buyers is one of the most important factors in the growth of the Thai housing market. Buyers from China and the United States had the highest purchasing power.
Real estate prices are higher than economic growth and salaries in the country
Over the past 5 years, the prices for detached houses, townhouses, and condominiums have risen above average salaries and exceeded current economic growth. This problem worsened in 2019 during the economic downturn. Household debt was still high and the Bank of Thailand's measures to regulate housing lending intensified the purchasing power regression. Unrealized offers started to accumulate on the market.
Limiting the introduction of new projects by developers
When real estate sales decline, developers adapt to the situation by limiting the launch of new projects to build as much ready-made housing as possible. Most of them are in the price range below ฿3,500,000 ($105,700). Discounts and hot offers are often used to boost buyers' interest.
Features of the housing sector
Condominiums remain the most common format on the Thai new-build market, especially in Bangkok and the resort provinces. The largest share sits in the price category up to ฿3,500,000. The three major districts of Bangkok have a lot of condominiums: Wattana, Khlong Toei, and Huai Khwang.
Wattana, Lat Phrao, and Prawet have many townhouses while detached houses are located on the outskirts of central business districts such as Prawet, Khlong Sam Wa, and Sai Mai.
What has changed since 2022
Between the decade described above and the present day lie four years that changed the market more than the whole preceding period. Here is what matters.
- Tourism came back, but not fully and not evenly. Thailand received around 35.5 million visitors in 2024 and 32.9 million in 2025, down 7.2%. Chinese arrivals fell hardest: 4.47 million against 6.73 million a year earlier, a drop of about a third. Several events came together — the abduction of a Chinese actor in Bangkok in January 2025, the March earthquake, the border conflict with Cambodia and flooding in the south. For 2026 the tourism authorities are counting on 36.7 million; the Ministry of Finance is more cautious at 30–34 million.
- The housing market entered a prolonged slowdown. Sales have been falling for several years, developers are accumulating unsold stock, and the industry carries a heavy debt load. For a buyer this is a rare situation: a buyer’s market where negotiation and extra terms from the seller are realistic.
- The central bank reversed its mortgage policy completely. Having introduced LTV limits in 2019, on 20 March 2025 it announced their temporary suspension: contracts signed between 1 May 2025 and 30 June 2026 may be financed up to 100% of the property value. In spring 2026 an extension to 30 June 2027 was under discussion. This affects foreigners only indirectly, but a revival in local demand feeds through to prices in every segment.
- The earthquake of 28 March 2025 changed the conversation about build quality. A magnitude 7.7 tremor centred in Myanmar reached Bangkok, a State Audit Office building under construction collapsed and 96 people died. Since then buyers ask about the year of design and seismic calculations, not only about the view.
- Ownership rules tightened through the courts. In March 2025 the Supreme Court ruled invalid those leasehold schemes that promised renewals up to 90 years: only the current thirty-year term is registered.
What is the future of Thai real estate?
TDRI predicts that the incentives driving the real estate sector will decrease in the next 10-20 years.
What areas will benefit Thailand's real estate market?
Transport sector
The government plans to expand the road and rail network. The tolled motorway network currently runs to around 250 km, and the master plan aims to extend it to several thousand kilometres by 2037. Railways are being expanded in parallel, including double-track lines and the high-speed rail project. New motorways will boost property development along them — exactly what happened with the skytrain in Bangkok.
Tourism sector
Special attention should be paid to the tourist provinces, especially in the northeast of the country as they have great potential.
Purchasing power abroad
This is one of the most important factors to develop the real estate sector – the activity of foreign buyers. The state is meeting them halfway: since 1 October 2025 a property purchase from ฿3 million supports a long-term visa. Investors still need to follow the ownership rules strictly: the foreign quota in a building is measured against residential floor area and cannot exceed 49%, and land does not pass into foreign ownership.
What the decade teaches a buyer: three conclusions
The history of a market is useful not in itself, but for what it shows about the future.
- Transport moves prices more than advertising does. Everything that happened to Bangkok prices is explained by the skytrain lines. Before buying, look not at the current transport map but at the construction plans for the coming years.
- Resort markets track visitor numbers, and that works both ways. 2025 showed how quickly the figures fall when several external factors coincide. Yields in resort provinces should be calculated with room for years like that.
- A downturn is not always bad news for a buyer. A market where developers are sitting on unsold stock offers discounts, instalments and prepaid fees that a rising market never does. The only thing to separate is a temporary dip in demand from trouble at a particular developer — the second is checked against completed projects and financial reporting.
"Over ten years the market has gone through a full cycle, and we are now in its lower half. Historically it is in periods like this that the buyers who later showed the best returns made their purchases. But not everyone won — the ones who did picked a location with transport and a developer with completed projects behind it."
— a Southeast Asian property market analyst
Frequently asked questions
Are property prices in Thailand rising now?
The market has been in a downturn for several years: sales are falling and developers are accumulating unsold stock. For a buyer that means room to negotiate and extra terms from the seller.
What influenced prices most over the decade?
Transport. The rise in Bangkok prices follows the skytrain map almost exactly — land along those lines gained an average of 8% a year.
Has tourism recovered from the pandemic?
Not fully. Thailand received about 35.5 million visitors in 2024 and 32.9 million in 2025. Chinese arrivals fell by a third; for 2026 the authorities are counting on 36.7 million.
What changed in the mortgage rules?
The central bank introduced loan-to-value limits in 2019 and suspended them temporarily in March 2025: contracts signed between May 2025 and June 2026 may be financed up to 100% of the value.
Is it worth buying during a downturn?
A downturn brings discounts and instalment terms a rising market never offers. What needs checking is the developer — through completed projects and financial reporting rather than promises.