Recently, a seminar was held on the topic «Opportunities and problems of the housing market: positive and negative factors for the housing market in 2023», organized by the Housing Business Association.
The reason why the Bank of Thailand canceled the easing of the LTV measure was discussed. Since the beginning of the pandemic, a mortgage loan could amount to 100-110% of the cost of housing, but the relief expires at the end of 2022. After that, from January 1, 2023, it should return to the original LTV ceiling, since the loan request for the purchase of the 2nd and 3rd houses is 70-90%, which means that 20-30% of a large down payment is required.
The Senior Director of the Financial System Stability Department of the Bank of Thailand said that, speaking about the positive and negative factors affecting the housing business in 2023, the main positive factor is the economic prospects. The economy is in a steady growth trend. The second factor is the return of foreign customers. Due to the partial opening of China, an increase in demand for low-rise buildings.
According to forecasts, the world economy has not yet entered a recession. But there are many experts who say that the economy will enter a recession next year. However, real estate is recovering more slowly than the economy as a whole.
It is expected that in 2023, inflation will return to the pre-COVID era. Recent estimates show that inflation may have passed its peak in the country. According to the inflation forecast of the Bank of Thailand, inflation will gradually decrease in 2023. The purpose of the monetary policy of the Bank of Thailand is that in the second half of 2023, inflation should return to the target range.
An important factor affecting the real estate market in Thailand is that China was already going to abandon «COVID Zero» policy, but now the outbreak in China is as serious as at the peak of COVID, especially in important economic cities. The return of the previous volume of Chinese investors to Thailand would greatly change the economic situation of the country.