The uncertain future of the real estate market in aging Thailand

The uncertain future of the real estate market in aging Thailand

The country is "old", but by the beginning of the next decade, the situation will only get worse.

By 2031, about 28% of the population will be 60 years or more.

Thailand has experienced a significant decline in the birth rate for decades with an aging population. Last year, statistics for the country showed a cross for the first time when the number of deaths exceeded the number of births — 563,650 deaths to 544,570 births.

The total fertility rate (TFR/TFR) for the Kingdom decreased from 5.1 to 1.2, below the birth rate.

Some experts called on the state to pursue a policy of stimulating the birth rate, but not all found it justified.

With the able-bodied population, many people are unemployed. Many graduates of professional and higher education institutions understand that the market does not need their skills and competencies.

This leads to an increase in unemployed young people with no or no stable income.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences will be with people for a long time or forever. Most global and national economies have been transformed and are adapting to new realities. This is also true of Thailand.

The Kingdom has always relied on the tourism sector: money, specialists, and expats from abroad. One of the country's major industries, the real estate sector, flourished with foreigners, especially from China, Russia, Great Britain, and France.

However, 2021 has shown that such a situation is no longer possible. The local real estate market can survive 2022 only by working properly with domestic demand. The country will probably have to rely on the domestic market for the next few years.

The declining birth rate, the aging of the able-bodied population, and the unemployed young, mobile, and able-bodied people paint the future of the local housing market in dark colors.

58% of people who can be classified as the "millennials" do not plan to buy or rent real estate in 2022.

49% of this population do not want to move out to stay closer to relatives and take care of them in an unstable epidemiological situation, but another 43% do not have the means to move and live independently.

The problem of population aging in Thailand is unsolvable.

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